🌷S3T Mar 8, 2024 - BTC's new ATH, Divergent Economics, Claude3, Insurance Bubble, Anxiety driven work, Feeding Dangerously...
Happy Friday everyone! Welcome to the S3T edition for March 8!
- Economic Key Data Points: BTC reaches a new all time high. 3 months into the year, investments in Bitcoin are already 1/3 of the total worldwide investment in gold. Divergent economics - why the costs of some things are way up, while others are way down.
- Emerging Tech: Anthropic claims that its latest release, Claude 3 beats GPT-4. Insurance is using AI more than you might expect. Emerging challengers to the Apple & Google App Store duopoly.
- Reflection: Are you motivated by Anxiety or Purpose. How to make a shift in your habits, that will give you better effectiveness and a better work life experience.
- Change Leaders: Chef Andres and Steve Orlando teamed up recently to create Feeding Dangerously, a graphic novel that tells the story of the World Central Kitchen.
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Opinions expressed are those of the individuals and do not reflect the official positions of companies or organizations those individuals may be affiliated with. Not financial, investment or legal advice. Authors or guests may hold assets discussed.
Macro Economic need to know
🎢 New Bitcoin ATH
BTC reaches a new all time high - over 69K this week - and remains in the high 60's as of writing. The volatile digital asset has been on an upward trend as investment firms encourage their clients to invest record setting amounts in BTC ETFs. These figures from JPMorgan provide perspective:
- Amount of gold held for investment = $3.3 Trillion
- Amount of BTC held for investment = $1.3 Trillion
Will investors take BTC to the same level? The JPMorgan notes above suggest that Bitcoins high volatility (higher than gold) will cause it to be retained in smaller amounts in the average portfolio. Still we are less than 3 months from the initial SEC approval that started this investment cycle.
🙀Divergent Economics
Why have the costs of some things gone way up over time, while the costs of a few other things have come way down?
Chartr used Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data to create this comparative view of inflation that perfectly illustrates the problem with the Fed's preferred inflation measures:
- Some expenditures are way up, some are way down.
- But the ones that went up comprise a much larger portion of household budgets - these expenditures (college, housing, healthcare) can be multiples of average annual salaries.
For individuals and families the net impact can be brutal, while headline economic figures still average out to look pretty good.
The dramatic fall in the price of televisions is one of the factors impacting movie theaters, as Chartr explains in this deep dive into the evolving entertainment preferences of Americans:
- People prefer to stay in the comfort of their homes and watch movies on their big screen TVs
- Movie theaters haven't figured out a viable answer to the "streaming" experience that has captivated so many Americans.
Here in the S3T Community we make it a priority to try to maintain awareness of economic realities that face our customers and communities. As we have opportunity we can also advocate for better outcomes.
More Perspectives:
🌀Climate risk creates an insurance bubble
Climate impacts are catching up to property insurers and homeowners. According to a First Street Foundation study, 39 million properties in the US are overvalued when considering their unpriced risk and what their insurance premiums and property value would actually be if an updated assessment of flood or other disaster risks were conducted.
Related: As noted further below, insurance companies are embracing AI in hopes of gaining an edge over challenges like this one.
Emerging Tech
Challenging the App Store Duopoly
Courts keep siding with tech giants in spite of onerous fees and contracts, but the Apple and Google App Stores do face emerging challengers:
- OpenAI’s ChatGPT Store offers a simplified approach for building and releasing custom versions of ChatGPT.
- Now, Solana is launching a 2nd mobile app platform with web3 integration. This follows Solana‘s earlier release of an Android based smartphone optimized for Web3.
Claude 3 Beats GPT-4
Anthropic claims that its latest release, Claude 3 beats GPT-4 across all metrics that measure different levels of difficulty:
- Undergrad 86.8% vs 86.4%
- Grad-level 50.4% vs 35.7%
- Grade School Math 95% vs 92%
- Math problem-solving 60.1% vs 52.9%
Go here for complete list of metrics with explanations. And here for Anthropic's official announcement. To see the how Claude is pushing the envelope, check out Karina Nguyen's capability demos:
I really love how Claude 3 models are really good at d3. Asked Claude 3 Opus to draw a self-portrait. The response is the following and then I rendered its code:
— Karina Nguyen (@karinanguyen_) March 4, 2024
"I would manifest as a vast, intricate, ever-shifting geometric structure composed of innumerable translucent… pic.twitter.com/mMfG32mByz
Insurance and AI
Cigna scores highest in CB Insights AI Readiness Index - a ranking of the top 50 insurance companies (all sectors) based on 2 factors:
- Ability to develop or acquire promising AI capabilities
- Ability to execute AI initiatives that deliver value.
Notable points from the analysis:
- State Farm leads in AI related patents, filing over 300(!)
- 34 of 50 have inked partnerships with AI startups.
- None of the 50 companies scored consistently in both categories (see list below).
Below is an excerpt of the list. Go here to see the entire list.
CHANGE LEADERS
New Graphic Novel
Chef Jose Andres is an inspiring example of change leadership in action. Spurred by the simple but powerful thought that "Food is a universal human right", Chef Andres leads rapid response relief efforts to serve "chef-prepared meals to communities impacted by natural disasters and during humanitarian crises." Over the years this initiative has provided more than 350 million meals to disaster and war torn areas around the globe, most recently delivering food to Ukraine and Gaza.
Chef Andres and Steve Orlando teamed up recently to create Feeding Dangerously, a graphic novel that tells the story of the World Central Kitchen, the relief organization founded by Andres to bring food to people impacted by hurricanes, volcanos, wildfires, and other disasters. Visit the link below to see sample artwork and order your copy.
REFLECTION FOR CHANGE LEADERS
🧭 How to Shift from Anxiety Driven Work to Intentional Work
This Change Leadership insight note is especially relevant for anyone trying to move to the next level of effectiveness. The first crucial step is to examine what motivates you to work: fear or purpose. This will help you gain clarity about how you're spending your time, what you're focusing on the most, and where that's taking you.
Is your work driven by anxiety or intention? Which of these uneasy feelings do you identify with:
- Fear of falling behind
- Fear of looking dumb, or weak, or not up for job
- Fear of disappointing others
They all relate to fear of not being good enough, or not doing enough. Now, it’s normal to feel these fears. We all do. BUT we don't have to let them dictate our actions.
Fear-based work is a rat wheel. A very bad rat wheel for 3 reasons:
- Fear-based work is a poor investment. Spending your career in fear instead of purpose will force you to pour a LOT of time and energy into activities that in the long run get you very little compared to what you invested. You'll likely end up feeling stretched too thin...and your customers and co-workers will notice.
- Fear-based work is never-ending. Never done. Nothing you do is ever enough. Why? It comes from your habit of being fearful - not from the actual work or opportunities. Fear-based busyness doesn't get solved by doing more busyness. It gets solved by you changing this habit: stop following your fears. Instead, just feel them, and then decide what you're going to focus on.
- Fear-based work will distract you from what's truly important to you, and you really want to accomplish. Unintentional work - whether it's empty inboxes or checked-off task lists - can give us a deceptive feeling of accomplishment, while our real opportunities get neglected and missed.
For better rewards and outcomes, replace your habit of Fear Based Work with 2 habits that lead you to Intentional Work.
For Paid Membership: How to Shift from Anxiety Driven Work to Intentional Work.
Nature Notes: Spring flowers and how to find them
Now is the perfect time to get outdoors and take note of the early spring flowers starting to bloom on the forest floor. Most are small and easy to overlook, but if you stop to examine them, you can't help but marvel. Here are a few photos taken this past week of spring flowers.
Azure Bluet (or one of the members of the Bluet family)
Trout Lily
Rue Anemone
How to find them
Look for trails that follow or lead to streams. These plants thrive in the more moist conditions along waterways. As you go along the trail, check the stream banks, as well as around the base of trees. It's still early - more species will be in bloom in the next few weeks.
Member discussion